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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/02 11:00

   Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday; Soybeans Higher

   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower; beans are 5 to 7 cents higher, and wheat 
trade is 6 to 13 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower; beans are 5 to 7 cents higher, and wheat 
trade is 6 to 13 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 
90 points. The Dollar Index is 30 points higher. Interest rate products are 
firmer. Energies are mixed with crude down 0.50 and natural gas up 0.08. 
Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold 5.00 lower.

CORN:

   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with early strength fading during 
the day session with weaker spread action and little fresh news to sustain 
buying. Ethanol margins have support from natural gas while blender margins 
tighten again as unleaded fades from the recent highs with spring driving 
demand right around the corner. Crop development will continue to be watched 
with drier weather short term in Argentina, and early double crop planting in 
Brazil underway. The daily export wire has been quiet this week with weekly 
sales very good at 1.59 million metric tons (mmt) (62.7 mb) of old crop, and 
163,200 mt (6.4 mb) of new crop. Basis has stabilized in the west with above 
average action holding up overall. On the March chart, support is at the $6.72 
20-day moving average which we are just above at midday with the upper 
Bollinger Band at $6.94 the next round up, which we have faded from last week 
with a fresh high for the move being scored at $6.88 3/4, which we tested 
Wednesday.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade firming back towards 
the middle of the recent range with mixed spread action as new crop gains, but 
we have faded off the day's highs. Meal is 2.50 to 3.50 higher and oil was 25 
to 35 points lower. The daily export wire has remained quiet as we watch for 
more action from China as they return from holiday with weekly sales softening 
at bit at 736,000 old crop (27.0 mb), 192,000 new crop (7.1 mb), meal 165,400 
mt old, 4,200 new, and 900 mt of oil. South American weather should help 
stabilize the Argentina crop with more rain needed for sustained improvement, 
while Brazil harvest should pick up the pace a little bit more. Basis remains 
mostly sideways near term. March chart support is at the $15.10 20-day which we 
remain solidly above, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.49.

WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 6 to 13 cents lower at midday with trade backing off the 
fresh highs scored early in the day session to see some long profit taking as 
spreads flatten out as we back off the increasingly overbought conditions. The 
Southern Plains should show improvement into the second week temperature wise 
with the best rain shots for the eastern plains, with some Russia dryness, and 
logistical issues on the horizon. Matif wheat values are a bit softer as well, 
potentially limiting upside. Weekly export sales were soft at 136,400 metric 
tons of old crop, and 32,500 mt of new. On the chart, KC March has support at 
the 20-day moving average at $8.47 which we are solidly above, with the recent 
high at $8.95 as resistance with the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.91 which we are 
testing overnight.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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