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DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/04 11:00
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday; beans are 2 to 3 cents higher
and wheat trade is 4 to 5 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday; beans are 2 to 3 cents higher
and wheat trade is 4 to 5 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is mixed at
midday with the S&P 3 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 50 points lower.
The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade is firmer with crude up
1.55 with natural gas .10 higher. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals
are mixed with gold off 3.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade working to
consolidate above nearby support with firmer spread action to start the week.
Ethanol margins will get a boost if the unleaded rally holds along with the
firmer corn. Rains look to continue for much of the Corn Belt through the
middle of the week to slow remaining harvest and improve fall fieldwork
potential after. Weekly crop progress is likely to be near 90% harvested. The
daily export wire saw life again with Mexico securing another 150,000 metric
tons (mt), and unknown securing another 120,000 mt. Weekly export shipments
still solid at 779,078 mt, with year-to-date pace at 134%. Basis action is
starting to firm in the areas that have went post-harvest but is still mostly
flat. On the December chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.13 1/2 is support,
which we closed just Friday, with the recent low at $3.98 below that as further
support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade fading from the
early test of resistance with meal finally seeing some short-covering while oil
relaxes. Meal is 6.00 to 8.00 higher and oil is 115 to 125 points lower with
meal easing deeply oversold conditions, and oil easing overbought conditions.
Remaining harvest will likely linger into the middle of the month with the
coming rains. Monday's crop progress report will likely show progress near 95%
complete. South America continues to see little short term issue. The daily
export wire saw sales saw 132,000 mt sold to unknown. Weekly export inspections
were solid at 2.159 million metric tons (mmt) with year-to-date pace running at
103%. Basis should start to recover further from harvest pressure. On the
January chart, trade has support at the fresh lows at $9.77 with the 20-day
moving average at $10.05 the next level u,p which we faded from again.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents higher to start the week with choppy trade at
the lower end of the range continuing and overnight weakness easing during the
day session. The storms are expected to bring good coverage to the Plains the
next seven days. The weekly crop progress report is likely to show improved
conditions with planting and emergence still a bit behind the 5-year average.
MATIF wheat is weaker with the dollar sharply off the highs so far. Weekly
export inspections softened a bit to 193,523 mt. On the KC December chart,
support is the lower Bollinger Band at $5.55 and resistance the 20-day moving
average at $5.84.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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