DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/01 11:51
Wednesday Brings Weaker Tones to All Livestock Contracts
Heading into Wednesday's afternoon, the market is going to look for
fundamental support as its technicals are enduring immense pressure.
DTN Livestock Analyst
Despite seeing an extremely bullish Cattle Inventory report Tuesday
afternoon, the entire livestock complex is trading lower into Wednesday's
afternoon. March corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is
down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 352.96 points.
I once had a market mentor tell me, "whenever people in the market all
believe one thing is going to happen, the market will indeed do the opposite."
After Tuesday's extremely bullish Cattle Inventory report came out, most
believed that Wednesday's market would trade higher and that this could indeed
be the rallying factor that the market needed. But come Wednesday morning, my
mentor stood correct once again. February live cattle are down $0.42 at
$158.42, April live cattle are down $0.87 at $162.15 and June live cattle are
down $0.65 at $158.50. After running to new contract highs on Monday, it's
somewhat understandable that the live cattle contracts aren't challenging that
new high Wednesday. But more than anything, it seems as though traders are
apprehensive and need time to absorb Tuesday's report, and will likely turn the
markets higher later in time. The cash cattle market hasn't seen an ounce of
interest and it's likely that this week's market won't trade until Thursday or
The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Wednesday reported 60 lots (all lots in
TX), totaling 974 head of cattle, none of which sold. Opening prices were at
$155, bids were at $155.50, but they did not meet reserve prices of $158.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.33 ($264.76) and select down
$0.98 ($251.94) with a movement of 84 loads (57.08 loads of choice, 7.66 loads
of select, 10.04 loads of trim and 8.84 loads of ground beef).
The feeder cattle contracts are too trading lower despite the fact that
nearby corn contracts are trading lower and that Tuesday's Cattle Inventory
report was extremely bullish. March feeders are down $3.07 at $183.07, April
feeders are down $2.45 at $187.60 and May feeders are down $1.90 at $192.07.
The feeder cattle complex will continue to look at this week's cash cattle
market and to the sales that develop in the countryside for support as it's
evident that Wednesday's technicals aren't going to provide any support.
The lean hog complex is continuing to run lower as the market endures
immense technical pressure. February lean hogs are down $0.62 at $74.25, April
lean hogs are down $2.90 at $83.50 and June lean hogs are down $2.07 at
$100.97. Unfortunately, with all of the livestock contracts enduring this type
of rigorously down pressure, it's likely that, regardless of whatever the
market's fundamentals accomplish Wednesday afternoon, it won't be enough to
offset the technical downturn.
The projected lean hog index for Jan. 31 is down $0.07 at $72.51 and the
actual index for Jan. 30 is down $0.13 at $72.58. Hog prices are unavailable
due to packer submission issues. Pork cutouts total 167.05 loads with 144.77
loads of pork cuts and 17.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.29,
ShayLe Stewart can be reached firstname.lastname@example.org
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